smorg

After last nights very close race in NH, some pundits are claiming that the Bradley Effect (BE) was, so to speak, in the hiz-ouse.

The BE expounds that white voters will tell pollsters they are voting for a non-white candidate, so as to avoid the appearance of being racist. But once they are in the booth, they vote for a white candidate.

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.[1][2][3] Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the black candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters give inaccurate responses to polling questions because of a fear that they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls’ failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.

The talking heads are saying that the reason for the disparity from the projections (in which they were predicting a double-digit victory by Obama over Clinton) was the BE as opposed to my theory that they simply fucked up and got too excited over Iowa.

Me, I think the BE claim is bullshit. There are far more misogynists and Clinton haters in this country than there are racists. Hillarys’ bad attitude and penchant for using her time as First Lady as a reference, not to mention her dubious character (we want the self-promoting wife of a philanderer being our moral compass?) have much more of an impact on the normal Joe than Baracks skin color.

The Clintons OWN New Hampshire…always have, and as Chelsea will learn in 20 years, always will. The medias predictions of an Obama landslide were overstated and wrong.

Blaming the 3% win by Clinton on Americas closet racism is, in this case, a cop-out. The sheer fact that he has gotten this far and that his primary opponent is a woman (sorry, John ‘Miiiiillll’ Edwards), and the other primary Democrat is Hispanic should be enough evidence that this country has grown past that level of rhetoric.

Not going to be the last time I post about him I think.

Today, during a speech, a group of pro-life folks showed up and started heckling him and his positions. Soon after, his supporters were ‘booing’ the protestors. Obama essentially told them to not do so, that they had a right to speak just anyone else did.

Eventually though, the pro-life group became increasingly belligerent and scuffles ensued, so they were escorted away.

After the speech, Obama said, “Let me just say this though. Some people got organized to do that. That’s part of the American tradition we are proud of. And thats hard too, standing in the midst of people who disagree with you and letting your voice be heard.”

Isn’t it refreshing to read that after hearing for most of the past decade that speaking out or expressing dissent could label you a traitor or even a terrorist?

What kind of politician stands before a group of his supporters and asks them to let their ideological opponents voice their opinions? I’ll tell you what kind: intelligent, real and genuine ones.

Video
Source - MSNBC
Source - Boston Globe
Source - The Atlantic

4am is the best time of the day. It’s still night (technically), there is no traffic and the people that are out have a reason, or are also insomniacs. There’s also a sense that anything happening has just shifted from the dark and dangerous to energy and commerce.

It also smells like coffee everywhere you go.

‘Register to vote’ is a more popular search on Yahoo today than, *gasp*, Britney Spears.

What is the world coming to???

A little disconcerting is the presence of both John Travolta and ‘ground beef recipes’.

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